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Nearly Zero, or Zero?

Bubba watched a toad hop right into the open mouth of a gator and became an afternoon snack. “Well, that was a mistake. I guess we have all made a move that turned out to be in the wrong direction in our private lives and our professional lives. Sometimes the results are embarrassing, but some mistakes can be fatal. Take for instance the actions of the Manhattan Project. Ask yourself, “What if?”

Alamogordo Air Base, New Mexico

16 July 1945

Even though it was the middle of a stormy, heavily overcast night, the tower was visible thanks to a few swaying lights on nearby poles and the occasional lightning flash. The tower did not look very different from an oil well drilling tower, except this tower had no drill collars, well casings, or pump equipment. The 100-foot tower was made of steel, a fact that made several scientists extremely nervous. They were concerned that lightning might strike the tower and cause a catastrophe. Each of the tower’s four legs continued twenty feet deeper into the ground and were secured in concrete footings. On top of the tower, a corrugated iron shack was exposed to the west for observation purposes. The gadget sat on an oak platform within that shack. Mattresses were arranged at the bottom of the tower to catch the gadget if it fell, but most of the scientists laughed at that idea. They felt it would still explode if it fell, so the mattresses really would not make any difference. And now those mattresses were completely soaked.

The rain finally stopped around 0400 hours, but the sky still looked as if more was to come because of the continued lightning. It was not too windy, but some were concerned that too much wind could cause the premature detonation on a wobbling tower. Others were concerned that too much wind could blow radioactive material into populated areas. There were too many ‘ifs’. Everyone was very nervous, everyone except Ari Levinson, the nuclear physicist who specialized in heat displacement. His mind was elsewhere as he tried to explain something to Groves’ deputy commander, Brigadier General Thomas Farrell. Farrell begged, “Can we discuss this another time?”

“Sure, but have you heard the rumors and stories about Jews being killed in Nazi death camps in Germany and Poland? Several of us have heard Jews are being burned alive. We have heard they are being gassed to death. We have heard they are being shot or stabbed,” Levinson continued as if Farrell’s comments were never said.

Farrell took Levinson by the shoulders and calmly said, “Look, I have been on this assignment since January and I realize there are many things pulling all of us apart, but right now we both have higher priorities to deal with. Later?” The statement came out more like an order than a request. 

Farrell quickly glanced at Ari’s identification badge and said, “This can wait, Ari. Please.”  Farrell had many things on his mind, and he felt confident that this test would work so well that he was already planning to lead Operations Centerboard I and II from Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands. Farrell was at the control bunker called Baker Bunker about 10,000 yards from a 100-foot-high steel tower with an ominous platform on its top. To escape Levinson, Farrell turned to J.M. Hubbard and asked, “What time is it?”

Dr. Hubbard, the chief of the project’s meteorology team, replied, “It’s about 0415 hours. The weather seems to be improving and I think we can test the gadget at 0530 hours.”

Farrell looked around the steel-reinforced concrete control shelter. ‘Oppie’ told me that the average age of these physicists was only 24 years old. What an amazing group of young people that represent our future – if we have a future. There was Dr. Kenneth Bainbridge, who supervised all of the test arrangements. Dr. Kistiakowsky was trying to calm down Dr. Oppenheimer, who had insisted on this full-scale nuclear test.

Dr. Julius Robert Oppenheimer was the director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Military brass stood around trying to look important; some soldiers stood around and looked lost, and many technical assistants were scattered among the radios, instruments, and telephones. Everyone suffered from nervous anticipation, a general lack of sleep, and far too much coffee. Farrell tapped his boss on the shoulder and said, “Sir, as per standing orders, you and I must not be in the same place at the same time for this test.”

Major General Leslie Groves said, “Yeah, you’re right. I will take Dr. Oppenheimer and some others to the Base Camp for observation.” A conversation Groves had with the governor of New Mexico, John J. Dempsey, still pulled at him. What if things go wrong and we have to declare martial law for all of southwestern New Mexico? What if southwestern New Mexico ceases to exist in 30 minutes? he said to himself for the umpteenth time.

Groves had spent the last two hours trying to keep Oppenheimer from jumping out of his skin. The situation was already tense enough without the possibility of Oppenheimer causing problems. So, Groves was, in essence, babysitting a genius.

“Ah, no, General, I will stay here. Take Bush and Conant with you,” corrected Oppenheimer, or “Oppie” as everyone called him.

Besides the Base Camp, four structures were built as shelters and as observation posts. One was 10,000 yards due north from the detonation tower (designated as Able Bunker). Robert Wilson, whose team developed the measurement instrumentation, was the shelter chief. Another was 10,000 yards due west (designated as Pittsburgh Bunker), and John Manley, whose team would assess the blast and its shock waves, was that shelter’s chief. The third shelter was 10,000 yards due south from the tower (designated as Baker Bunker and the control bunker), and Frank Oppenheimer, physicist and younger brother of “Oppie,” was that shelter’s chief. The three observation points were heavily built wooden bunkers reinforced with concrete and covered with earth. The bunker designated Baker, or South, served as the control center for the test. This is where head scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer would be for the test. A fourth observation point was the test’s base camp, the abandoned Dave McDonald ranch, located about ten miles southwest of Ground Zero. The primary observation point was on Compania Hill, located about 20 miles to the northwest of Trinity.

Dr. Vannevar Bush was director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, and Dr. James B. Conant was chairman of the National Defense Research Committee. It might be best to move them back from here as another level of safety, thought Groves as he said, “I’ll take Tolman, as well.” Dr. Richard C. Tolman of Caltech was the scientific advisor to General Groves.

Some worried the gadget might not even work after millions and millions of dollars had already been spent. Others like Dr. Edward Teller worried that the gadget might work too well. Teller had said, “The explosion could ignite the entire atmosphere.” That thought was a stark contrast to what was holding the gadget’s external sphere together, crossed fingers and duct tape.

Oppenheimer asked, “Teller, what is the chance the atmosphere might ignite?”

“Well, it is a small chance.”

“How small?” Oppie asked.

Teller paused, squinted, and then replied, “Practically impossible.”

“How small?” Oppie pressed.

“Highly unlikely.”

“You have not answered my question, Edward. How small?” Oppie asked again.

“Nearly zero.”

“Nearly zero, or zero? There is a difference.”

“Nearly zero.”

Oppenheimer said nothing but stared into Teller’s eyes and soul to search for an answer.

The radio operator interrupted, “Dr. Lawrence is in position at the farther observation post.” Dr. Ernest O. Lawrence, the nuclear physicist and the inventor of the cyclotron, had taken a large group almost 30 miles distant to Compania Hill for more observations.

 At 0510 hours, Joe McKibben threw the switch that started the final countdown at minus 20 minutes. At 0525 hours, everyone at the Base Camp was ordered to heavily apply lotion to their faces and hands to prevent possible sunburn from the anticipated heat. They were then ordered to lie face down with their feet pointing toward the tower and dark glasses in hand. At 0527 hours, the countdown began to be broadcast over loudspeakers. Prayers of many religions and many languages could be heard here and probably at the Baker Bunker. Such an event could even drive an atheist to pray. Kenneth Griessen appeared to be lying down to take a nap. Isidore Rabi, lying next to him, noted Griessen’s casual attitude and asked, “Aren’t you nervous?”

Griessen turned to Rabi and responded matter-of-factly, “Nope.” 

Someone at the Baker Bunker said, “Remember what Richard Feynman once said, ‘We are tickling the tail of a sleeping dragon again.’”

Someone nervously responded, “Yeah, but this is a bit more than just a tickle, my friends … more like a baseball bat right between the eyes!”

One technician tried to lighten the tension by saying, “Ladies and Gentlemen, we are five minutes away from detonation. All German, Russian, and Japanese spies need to proceed to their observation post directly under the Trinity Tower.” No one laughed.

Lilli Hornig and her family escaped from Hitler’s Germany in 1933 and eventually became a chemist at Los Alamos. That night, Dorothy McKibbin, two other friends, and Lilli took sleeping bags and drove up to the 10,000-foot level on Sandia Mountain to watch the explosion. They had picked a good spot that was elevated and 110 miles from the detonation tower. They talked and tried to sleep but failed. Lilli finally got up around 0300 hours and sat on a boulder to wait. Soon they were all up and they waited until 0515 hours, a time which came and went. The 24-year-old Lilli looked at her watch, which said the time was 0535 hours. She yawned, stretched, and said, “Well, I guess it is not going to go today. It’s a dud.” She walked to her car, got in, and as she turned the ignition key, the distant morning sky became pure white. Her watch was five minutes fast.

Kenneth Griessen at Base Camp had a change of heart when the countdown reached ten seconds away from detonation. “Now I am nervous!”

At 0530 hours, there was an incredibly bright blinding light in the northwest sky.  Dawn turned bright as noonday. The sky was as brilliant as if multiple suns were glowing with the colors of purple, gold, gray, violet, and blue. Clouds that passed above the tower suddenly disappeared. Groves put on his dark glasses and rolled over.  “My God, it worked!” he said as a giant ball of fire formed where the tower had been.  

One technician watched as the ball of fire slowly rose. “It must be at 5,000 feet already!”

As it dimmed, a third technician exclaimed, “Now it must be at 10,000 feet!” There were other comments, whistles, and gasps, but the majority of the people in the Baker Bunker and at the Base Camp just watched in silent awe.

The gadget had exploded on the top of the 100-foot-tall steel tower. The tower evaporated. In its place was the column of fire that was being replaced by a strange cloud. “Hey, that looks like a mushroom!” gasped someone near Oppenheimer. The “mushroom” continued to climb to over 40,000 feet as the bright light of day returned to the light of dawn. 

It was a full forty seconds before the shockwave was felt and its awesome, continuous roar was heard. The shockwave shook the entire Baker Bunker and knocked many people onto tables or knocked them completely off their feet. The explosion was equal to twenty kilotons of TNT and turned desert and vegetation into a 1,200-foot-diameter crater that was over 100 feet deep. That crater was now lined with glowing radioactive glass that had a strange greenish color. It created a mushroom cloud almost eight miles high, and the sound of the detonation could be heard 100 miles away in El Paso, Texas. Windows vibrated wildly. A few windshields on trucks and jeeps shattered. Tons of dust and hot gaseous iron mixed with oxygen and then ignited, creating several additional spontaneous explosions.

“Can anyone see the second tower?” A half-mile from the primary tower was a second tower to test the effects of the blast on a steel and concrete building. “It has a 220-ton cylinder with its base covered in concrete and a 70-foot tall tower over it, and I can’t see the damn thing!” exclaimed the technician monitoring it. He was having some difficulty looking for the tower through binoculars and his goggles at the same time, but he did not dare remove the goggles. Why can’t I see the second tower? he thought to himself. He found himself almost yelling over the roar outside, “Maybe there is still too much dust. Maybe . . .” and his voice trailed off as his mouth dropped open. He turned to Dr. Oppenheimer and said with his eyes wide open, “I cannot see the secondary tower because it no longer exists!”

Kenneth Banbridge, the director of the test, turned to Oppenheimer and said, “Now we are all sons of bitches. Boy, I’m glad I don’t have to climb that tower and figure out why it never went off!”

Oppenheimer was lost in his own thoughts until he quoted an old Hindu scripture, “Now, I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.”

A technician pouring over his instruments turned to Oppenheimer and yelled, “The column of fire is still climbing!”

Another technician, Rich Winston, exclaimed, “The top of the cloud is spreading in every direction!”

Oppenheimer walked out of the bunker to get a better look. He saw the sky turning red and orange and said, “Nearly zero, but not zero,” as the atmosphere ignited in flames. The flames shot downward and swallowed every structure, vehicle, and person. The bunkers looked like blast furnaces as their wooden supports burst into flame and electronics shorted out. People inside and outside of the bunkers were instantly vaporized. The gas tanks of cars and trucks exploded. In seconds, Los Alamos was gone.

The cloud of flames spread rapidly out on every point of the compass. It consumed the western areas of the United States and Canada, then covered Mexico. The inferno spread across the Atlantic Ocean at the same time it sped across the Pacific. As it approached Europe and Asia, the inferno spread downward seeking more oxygen to maintain its fiery furnace.

Pietr and Sacha farmed near the Terek River in Chechnya. Pietr was spreading hay for their two milk cows while Sacha milked. She grabbed her throat as she fell off her milk stool. She gasped as she struggled to say, “Pietr! I cannot breathe!” As she fell, she saw Pietr had collapsed on the ground. They were dead in seconds.

Fortunato was fishing in his canoe on the Rio Colca near the ancient Inca tombs in Peru when he smelled smoke. Vegetation was sparse in this area, so Fortunato thought someone had started a campfire. Too late he realized it was a stream of fire sweeping down the canyon. His last thought was of his family before he inhaled the flames.

Anything and everything combustible became a smorgasbord. Temperatures soared as trees, wooden structures, field grains, fossil fuels, and people became engulfed by the flames. Vehicles exploded and tires melted. People walking around the Eiffel Tower were suffocated before they hit the ground. Airplane engines exploded and fell from the skies with screaming passengers. Cruise ship passengers watched as the waters around their vessel boiled and evaporated in the stifling heat.

 The fire rose quickly to feed on the oxygen in the stratosphere and mesosphere then slowed as it rose to the thermosphere. Within 24 hours, everything combustible in the troposphere became piles of ash, including all oceans and lakes. Earth became a dead brown rock.

***

Nine thousand sixty-eight Zhork time units later, a drone survey ship from Zhork passed through the system of a yellow dwarf star with eight major orbs and several minor orbs. Zhork, a planet in the Alpha Centauri B system (with its orange star) was searching through other planetary systems for an expansion home for a colony. Data began transmitting to a satellite positioned beyond the system for relay to Zhork:

Final REPORT ON yellow dwarf star z-726 system:

FIRST PLANET

This planet is NEAREST THE STAR and has the greatest intensity of light from that star. Heavily cratered. Minimal exosphere. Extreme surface temperature. No signs of life. Not suitable for colonization.

SECOND PLANET

The second planet from the star. dense atmosphere of carbon dioxide and sulfuric acid. Extreme surface temperature similar to the previous planet. Crushing pressure could not be terraformed. No signs of life. Not suitable for colonization.

THIRD PLANET

No atmosphere. No signs of methane oceans, though there was evidence that most of the scorched planet was once covered in water. No signs of life, yet there was archeological evidence of ancient cities. Low levels of radiation are noted in certain locations. Years ago, those radiation levels must have been very high. One orbiting satellite. The Planet might be worthy of an archeological Expedition at a future date, but not suitable for colonization.

FOURTH PLANET

Reddish color derived from fine grains of iron oxide. The planet has two irregularly shaped satellites. The planet has a thin atmosphere of carbon dioxide but not enough to terraform the atmosphere. No life was discovered. There is Evidence of an enormous impact with a massive asteroid, which indicates the planet is not safe or suitable for colonization.

Fifth Planet …

The transmission began to fade as the drone left the star system in search of a new home.

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